Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Iraq preliminary election results

Watch the Iraqi blogs for more detailed news.

From IECI in Baghdad. The UIA is currently being reported to have won 38 of the 59 seats in Baghdad. Over 600 complaints had been reported as of 9 am Baghdad time this morning. It seems that for many in Baghdad, the math isn't adding up. There is also suspicion because the IECI had stated that it would not make public the results for two weeks. If these results are accurate it looks as though they will retain power with the expected votes coming from the south and the ability to elect the PM with a majority of seats. The National Accord Front looks to retain the second largest amount, but far from what they expected. This, of course, is putting a tremendous strain on things there, as the disparity is enough for people to believe that some fraud or voting error without a doubt took place.

This outlook isn't bright for an easy start. There will likely be a lot of infighting and tension. And there are enough 'militias' on each side to make trouble when political processes break down as they are likely going to do at times, in such a new situation. Secular Iraqis are worried that it won't take more than four years with SCIRI-types runnning the place to turn it into something too close to Iran. They feel like things are spinning away from progress. Not unlike Big Pharoah feels in this post, many of the Iraqis I know feel they don't have four more years to give to what they consider to be an Islamic Fundamentalist government. They are frustrated, they can accept that the UIA wins a plurality, but not such a large disparity as this, which was not expected as an outcome in Baghdad. They know that realistically, if it takes another election cycle or two, that isn't much in the history of time for a nation to change as much as they have. However, they have already been through exactly what Egypt is going through now, only on a more brutal scale. And that kind of experience doesn't just wash away.

Let us hope that the PEOPLE of IRAQ remember that they have the power to hold their representatives responsible, to let them know that if their interests aren't represented as promised, they can provide consequences, without the threats of violence.

62 Comments:

Blogger J-Deal said...

gah, this ruins my morning, lets hope it all turns out not to be true.

5:45 PM  
Blogger Subcomandante Bob said...

The Iraq elections have forced Bush to develop a new Iraq strategy.

National Nitwit has the latest, guaranteed at least 50% truthful.

5:50 PM  
Blogger Mark said...

I totaled up the votes of top 10 parties from each of the governates. Here are the nationwide totals (so far):

555 - (Shia) UIA 46.4 pct
730 - Kurdistan Gathering 21.8 pct
618 - (Sunni) Iraqi Front 14.7 pct
731 - Iraqi National List 8.6 pct
667 - National Front 4.1 pct
561 - Islamic U of Kurdistan 1.4 pct
631 - Progressives 1.3 pct
516 - Liberation Gathering 1.0 pct
630 - Turkuman Front 0.7 pct

Let's start from the premise that 60 pct of the Iraqi voters in the December 15th elections were Shia. That would mean that (60 - 46.4) 13.6 pct of Iraqi voters were Shia voters who did not vote for List 555 (UIA). From this we could conclude that about one in five (22.7 pct) of the Shia voted against List 555.

Is that bad?

4:19 AM  
Blogger Kerry said...

Mark,

Stop and look at not the totals but the separate lists. The first thing to understand is that seats are won per province, not on a total percentage. Much in the same way as the electoral college, for a basic example might work. You can win 46% total and still own 65% of the seats. That is where the complaint is. Najaf, Anbar, Erbil, lots of areas came out as expected. However, look at Kirkuk...it's population is made up of close to 40% Turkman, now look at the votes there. 200K Kurds allowed to be 'registered' at the last minute as Kirkuk residents? I've been to Kirkuk Mark. One of my best friends in Iraq grew up there. There are a lot of Kurdish there, yes. But look at last election's split in Kirkuk and look at this one. Not even close. The Turkman-Iraqis are getting no seats in Kirkuk! None! And they comprise almost 40% of the population there. Yes, I have considered that possibly all those Turks voted for the Kurdish party, except that you have to understand Iraq (and the various factions).

Then look at Baghdad. Last election 1.4 million voters in Baghdad, right? This one 1 million more. So, where would you think those 1 million more came from? My guess would be mostly Sunnis that didn't participate in the last election. The 1.4 mill last time was already split between the Shiite and the independent and secular parties. It makes no sense mathematically that they did so well in Baghdad. To win the plurality yes, but to win like that? Baghdad is a very varied city. There are many Sheat there as well as Sunni, but of the Sheat, there are also secular Shiites such as Allawi, or Chalabi, that many Sunnis voted for.

Here's my feeling on this. If it was a fair election, it's fine, because the people have the right to choose whatever they want, even if that is having their 12 year old daughters covered in hijab. If it's not a fair election, and the people roll over (and believe me, those I've talked to don't feel there is a choice) and accept it anyhow, which looks like what is going to happen, well, read Stephen Vincent. You'll get a good idea of where Iraq will be in 4 years. No Mithal Al-Alusis. No Allawis. Plenty of clerics.

And if they were able to cheat the system now, do you think anyone believes they won't cheat it in 4 years when they have established even more power? I was told by Iraqis that the now reported UIA's 1st choice for PM spent today where?....in Iran.

I have also met with Kurdish people and government officials. 80-90% of Kurds want their own state. All they wanted was Kirkuk (and their oil fields don't hurt) and they are good to go. Now I don't blame them. I love and admire the Kurds, they've taken care of themselves as they've had to. And all the UIA needed was the seat of power in the capital. They were bound to win the south, and were expected to still be the majority. But this doesn't add up. I'm telling you, I've been there, and I've spent the past two days talking with various Iraqis in different areas. Guess what, nobody cares if Baghdad got screwed up in the south, because that is who they voted for. Nobody cares in Kurdistan, because they pretty much self govern anyhow, and they won Kirkuk. Where does that leave Baghdadis? We'll see. It matters which provinces the seats come from much more than people here understand.
Mike Yon's long held that Iraq has been in a form of civil war for awhile. I talked to an Iraqi yesterday who said, "maybe we have to have civil war". " You can't just have freedom handed to you like the US did for us, it's not understood or appreciated that way." Which, btw, is EXACTLY how the Kurdish feel.
So we wait and see. It bothers me more because I'm emotionally involved, because I've seen the work done and the progress made, I've been there and I love the Iraqi people. If someone wants to wear full hijab I think it's fine and I respect it, to be honest. What I don't respect is the government pretending that they can require such things and at the same time claim they are protecting rights of the individual. And I've read enough of Vincent's work and probably, to be fair, for the first time in my life, it bothers me even more because I am a woman.

9:37 AM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

I guess now I have a better understanding of what people are upset about.

I know that from my own personal experience, I sometimes get mad when a candidate that I really like doesn't win an election. I am even more upset if I suspect that the the candidate's defeat was a result of voter fraud.

So, based on your explanation, I guess I will have to keep reading the Iraqi blogs and see if there really was voter fraud or if it was just a case of the Iraqi people making a bad choice.

I am aware that the seats are allocated by province. The only reason why I displayed the votes on a nationwide basis was so that we could see a comparison of what percentage the UIA got with the estimated percentage of the Iraqi population that is Shia.

I had hoped that the secular candidates would do much better. I thought people in the south of Iraq were fed up with incompetence and the overbearing manner of the religious Shia party.

This is getting interesting in a sort of a bad way.

3:46 PM  
Blogger Kerry said...

Mark,

I ought to tell you that when I first heard the levels of fraud being claimed I was skeptical. I said, "do you know how many people here still think Bush stole the election?" It's normal for people to be upset if their party doesn't win.

For now I'm convinced that there is more to this than that, based again on looking at voting in individual provinces. Where are all the Kurdish votes in Baghdad--25,000? Why no complaint from the Kurd party on that? Again, last time there was no Front party for the Sunni, Allawi's alliance wasn't as strong, yet somehow the UIA won more this time in Baghdad.

I'm willing to keep an open mind and see how things develop. And hoping for the best. I'd be happy if someone could explain those voting irregularities. If they can, then hey, there's always next election. What bothers me is that in the meantime, Iraq will lose more and more of her progressive secular minded people. Over 10-20 years I think Iraq will be okay. I just think this made it tougher on a situation and on people that have already had it tough enough.

5:09 PM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

Before I endorse the idea that the December 15th election has flawed in a major way, I would like to do a comparison.

A comparison between, say the Kirkuk results in January 30th and the Kirkuk results in December 15th.

Or a similar comparison between 1-30 and 12-15 for Baghdad or the other mixed provinces.

So far, all I have noticed is that the UIA (Shia) did better in the Shia south than they had before.

But the Kurds actually dropped in Kirkuk on Dec 15th compared to Jan 30.

9:35 PM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

Let's take Kirkuk on January 30th

List 130 (Kurds) got 237,006 votes out of 397,224 total votes cast or 59.67 percent.

On December the Kurdish party got about 51 percent.

This represents a decline in the Kurdish vote as a percentage (perhaps not in absolute terms). So I am not sure that I see voter fraud in this case.

But perhaps you can show me some numbers (comparisons with Jan 30th) that say otherwise.

9:48 PM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

Here's another comparison between the January 30th election results and the December 15th election results.

Baghdad (January 30th):

Kurdistani 45,525 2.44 pct
UIA 1,130,277 60.57 pct
Others 690,219 36.99 pct

Baghdad (December 15th):

Kurdistani 25,459 1.09 pct
UIA 1,398,778 60.03 pct
Others 905,720 38.87 pct

This means that on December 15th the change in vote totals compared to January 30th was as follows:

Kurdistani 20,066 decrease
UIA 268,501 increase
Others 215,501 increase

2:59 AM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

I have a new post at my joint-blog site titled A Clean Election in Iraq?.

It summarizes my view of the election at this point, pending additional information.

4:00 AM  
Blogger Kerry said...

Mark,

Kirkuk is comprised of essentially three sects. These are, Kurds, Turkoman, and Sunni Arabs.

Two things. One, the Turkoman had 5 seats from the January elections in Kirkuk. Now they have none. Where did their votes go? Do we think that they just didn't turn out? They are 30-40% of the population. There HAS been an uproar over this, but you'll only hear about it in Iraq. Secondarily, just days before the election, 200,000 Kurds were 'added' to the population of Kirkuk for voting. So, what we see in Kirkuk is this: the Arabs got their vote, which didn't happen last time, as they mostly boycotted the January elections. The Kurds got their vote. I don't see a representative Turkoman vote in there, do you? And, to be sure, a Turkoman voting for a Kurdish party is like your general person in Anbar going for the UIA, so that didn't happen. Something is wrong there. And secondly, what would you logically infer if suddenly 200,000 registered democrats or republicans were added to your city's population a few days before a landmark election?

Now, Baghdad. You made the case with these numbers:

Kurdistani 20,066 decrease
UIA 268,501 increase
Others 215,501 increase

Er, last I checked, the extremist SUNNI boycotted the elections in January, not the UIA SHIITE members. So, how then, do we explain such a large increase in UIA votes in Baghdad, and such a small increase in 'others' which lumps in all the Sunni groups? And why was the Kurdish vote almost cut in half there? How, in the world, did the UIA come out with almost the same exact % of votes when so many more people voted, and an extremely small percentage of those would have been UIA supporters? You know, if they had been praised as doing a great job keeping security or getting reconstruction and commerce really going then I could possibly overlook it as a huge change in peoples' choice. But they haven't exactly been a strong interim government. I'm sorry, but this just doesn't add up to the Iraq I know.
Yes, the people for sure chose the UIA to be the majority governing party. But there is a fine line, as you know between being the majority, and having full control, enough to push through or veto anything else. As of now, the elections will provide them with full control.
Allawi is here in the States now, so we'll see where this goes...

6:14 AM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

Can you give the the "before and after" picture of the Turkomen party's vote totals in Kirkuk?

In other words, how many votes did the Turkomen Party receive in Kirkuk in the January 30th election and how many did they receive in Kirkuk in the December 15th election?

If I have time tomorrow, I will find this information.

But we do know two things about Kirkuk with respect to the change in vote totals between January 30th and December 15th:

(1) The Kurds got 29,731 more votes in Kirkuk in December than they did in January, but they got a lower percentage of the vote.

(2) The United Iraqi Alliance got 1,384 fewer votes in Kirkuk in December than they got in January.

So, while I don't know the details of what happened to the Turkomen party's vote in Kirkuk, I don't know if the Kurds or the Shia are at fault. If the Shia had been involved, wouldn't they have received more votes in Kirkuk? If the Kurds had been involved, wouldn't the percentage of their vote have gone up instead of down?

I have never heard of voter fraud that results in fewer votes or a lower percentage of the vote in the affected area.

8:21 AM  
Blogger Kerry said...

If the Shia had been involved, wouldn't they have received more votes in Kirkuk? If the Kurds had been involved, wouldn't the percentage of their vote have gone up instead of down?

IF the Shia were involved, certainly their votes would have gone down. They didn't need Kirkuk and they were never going to place there, their base isn't part of the population. All they needed to do was be okay (not raise a fuss about) with 200 K extra Kurdish voters being registered at the last moment.

Again, it's not the %, up or down that matters from the previous election. It's the way the seats are distributed. Think electoral college with a tiny bit more leeway. Think of Kirkuk as a state. The Kurdish list there won 266,737 votes, the next list, the HNIF won 73, 191, the Turkoman list won 59, 716. This means (if the results are certified as they currently stand) that over 2/3 of the seats will be given to the Kurdish, which means they CONTROL Kirkuk, lawfully. There are more Turkoman in Kirkuk than there are Sunni Arabs, at least 10% more, and they are within 10-15% of the amount of Kurds that live there. The Kurds and the Turks are always at odds politically, even as they live in the same areas. (Not unlike the hardcore D's and R's here.) They vote party line. The Sunni Arab vote looks right on (HNIF with some split to the secular groups/others). The Turkoman vote however looks suspicious. Do I care if the Kurds get Kirkuk? Do I care if the Turks don't win there? It doesn't effect me personally. But I DO care IF the votes were tampered with so that they don't reflect the will of the people there. Same as I would here, if suddenly the Republican party won Maine by a plurality, you'd KNOW that something went wrong. And I care even more when our soldiers have been putting their lives on the line for this, and the administration has been putting their reputation on the line for it, and I feel that IF this happened, we got screwed just as badly as the people there. You know your own population base well enough to know pretty much how things will turn out. I mean within a few % points, no, we don't. But within 10% points, yes, we do. So do Iraqis.

Which brings us to Baghdad again....

3:19 PM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

I hope you will join in on the discussion at Iraqi Bloggers Central where Jeffrey has put up a new post titled Crunching the Numbers

I've been looking at all the numbers from the three votes participated in by the Iraqi citizens in 2005 (January 30, October 15, and December 15) and I've concluded that, although there were most likely instances of fraud, the election results for December 15 conform reasonably well with the numbers generated by the previous two votes.

As in all elections, there are winners and losers. I believe that the candidates in this election who have cried "fraud" are simply sore losers.

9:43 PM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

I decided to calculate, using the
highest remainder method of allocating seats by proportional representation by province, how many of the 230 seats will be awarded to each party list. (This calculation doesn't estimate the additional 45 seats that will be awarded.)

Here are my calculations:
(Percent divides the seats won by the party by 230)

List 555 - 111 Seats - 48.26 pct
List 730 - 43 Seats - 18.70 pct
List 618 - 37 Seats - 16.09 pct
List 731 - 21 Seats - 9.13 pct
List 667 - 9 Seats - 3.91 pct
List 561 - 4 Seats - 1.74 pct
List 516 - 3 Seats - 1.30 pct
List 630 - 1 Seats - 0.43 pct
List 631 - 1 Seats - 0.43 pct

I don't think the result are as gloomy as people have been implying.

Ok. I do realize that the UIA (list 555) isn't the only party that scares people. Some of the Sunni parties aren't exactly full of peace, love and understanding.

But, still, the UIA will probably have to form a coalition. I don't think they will be able to rule all by themselves.

2:20 AM  
Blogger Mark said...

Kerry,

Here are my estimates for all 275 seats, including the compensatory seats.

List 555 - 131 seats - 47.64 pct
List 730 - 53 seats - 19.27
List 618 - 44 seats - 16.00
List 731 - 25 seats - 9.09
List 667 - 11 seats - 4.00
List 561 - 5 seats - 1.82
List 516 - 3 seats - 1.09
List 631 - 2 seats - 0.73
List 630 - 1 seat - 0.36

My calculations for the compensatory seats are very "quick and dirty." They assume that there aren't any parties that will get compensatory seats that have not already won seats at the governate level.

So, if my assumptions are wrong, the parties presented above will have even fewer seats than my estimate indicates.

4:06 AM  
Blogger edwardprehiem13252736 said...

I read over your blog, and i found it inquisitive, you may find My Blog interesting. My blog is just about my day to day life, as a park ranger. So please Click Here To Read My Blog

9:09 AM  
Blogger lucynelson5721 said...

I read over your blog, and i found it inquisitive, you may find My Blog interesting. So please Click Here To Read My Blog

http://pennystockinvestment.blogspot.com

1:57 AM  
Anonymous Scott Arthur Edwards said...

The fact is that the INTERNET is making people RICH! Shouldn't YOU be one of them? Click here: FIND OUT NOW!

4:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello
Take a look adipex | | didrex | meridia | adipex | phentermine | phentermine
phentermine | ativan | valium | xanax | sex for adult
Bye

7:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello
xanax phentermine xanax xanax phentermine phentermine phentermine tramadol tramadol tramadol levaquin levaquin levaquin norvasc sex babe casino casino
lroulette blackjack lpoker phentermine
Bye

9:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

For what I have seen, this site is not bad at all
- literalthoughts.blogspot.com f
spaghetti alla carbonara

9:09 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello
Mac OS X software,news mobile ,games
http://spdimon.info

Bye

11:39 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi
Mac OS X software,news mobile ,games
http://italiagame.org

Bye

9:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello, great site, I found a lot of useful information here, thanks a lot for Your work!
With the best regards!
Frank

11:52 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MESSAGE

1:36 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi all!
Propose to join video chat & welcome to this useful site: lesbian

Bye

5:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

equity credit line
credit equity home information line
credit equity home line loan low mortgage rate
credit equity home home line loan low mortgage rate
credit does equity home line work
credit equity home illinois line
credit equity florida home line
100 credit equity home line
bad credit equity home line loan low mortgage rate
bank credit equity home line ohio savings
credit equity home line michigan
credit equity home line tax
125 credit equity home line
credit equity home interest line rate
credit equity home line refinance
citibank credit equity home line
bad credit equity line
credit equity home line question
credit equity line loan
credit equity fargo home line well
best credit equity home line
credit equity home line texas
california credit equity home line
bankruptcy credit equity home line
credit equity home line virginia
credit equity equity home home line loan vs
credit equity home line mutual washington
bad credit credit equity home line
conventional credit equity home line loan other vs
calculator credit equity line
credit equity fixed home line rate
credit equity home line loan versus
best credit equity home line rate
credit equity home line mobile
credit equity home line loan vs
calculator credit equity home line
credit equity line rate
credit equity home line loan
credit equity home line rate
credit equity line
credit equity home line
equity credit lines
Equity Line of Credit

10:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sad love quote

3:44 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi. Alone on Valentine's Day? Live adult chat
for fun

7:16 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MESSAGE

6:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

equity credit line
credit equity home information line
credit equity home line loan low mortgage rate
credit equity home home line loan low mortgage rate
credit does equity home line work
credit equity home illinois line
credit equity florida home line
100 credit equity home line
bad credit equity home line loan low mortgage rate
bank credit equity home line ohio savings
credit equity home line michigan
credit equity home line tax
125 credit equity home line
credit equity home interest line rate
credit equity home line refinance
citibank credit equity home line
bad credit equity line
credit equity home line question
credit equity line loan
credit equity fargo home line well
best credit equity home line
credit equity home line texas
california credit equity home line
bankruptcy credit equity home line
credit equity home line virginia
credit equity equity home home line loan vs
credit equity home line mutual washington
bad credit credit equity home line
conventional credit equity home line loan other vs
calculator credit equity line
credit equity fixed home line rate
credit equity home line loan versus
best credit equity home line rate
credit equity home line mobile
credit equity home line loan vs
calculator credit equity home line
credit equity line rate
credit equity home line loan
credit equity home line rate
credit equity line
credit equity home line
equity credit lines
Equity Line of Credit

6:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MESSAGE

6:52 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi
cialis vs viagra
cialis levitra viagra vs vs
cialis drug viagra vs
cialis levitra viagra vs
cialis strong viagra vs
cialis levitra search viagra vs
cialis search viagra vs
cialis effects side viagra vs
cialis levitra search viagra vs vs
viagra vs cialis
Bye

6:52 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi. Use these helpful search engines BD search & movie pages and try to find all you need in your area!
Enjoy

10:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi all!. Use this search engine for best result: BD search Find all you need in your area!
for fun

9:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi all!. Use these helpful search engines TFO search & movie pages and try to find all you need in your area!
for fun

4:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi. Use this search engine for best result: BDsearch Find all you need in your area!
for fun

9:09 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello
Check out search engine:BD search You can find all in your area.
Bye

10:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder ,.............. were to find boyfriend to my sister?................... Joke:)
My online friends propose this link to use - Fast finder - As for me,........ I think life is now!

4:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi people,this is a simple test
sorry sex video
zzz

2:51 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MESSAGE

1:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://invest-options-online.usabestlink.info - invest options online

http://option-investing.usabestlink.info - option investing

[URL=http://invest-options-online.usabestlink.info/index.html]invest options online[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/index.html]option investing[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-in-future-and-option-market.html]investing in future and option market[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/lease-option-investing.html]lease option investing[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/fear-investing-option-without.html]fear investing option without[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-lease-option-turnkey.html]investing lease option turnkey[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/lease-option-real-estate-investing.html]lease option real estate investing[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-in-option.html]investing in option[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-in-stock-option.html]investing in stock option[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/stock-option-investing.html]stock option investing[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/future-in-investing-market-option.html]future in investing market option[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-lease-option.html]investing lease option[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/fear-investing-option-without.html]fear investing option without[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-lease-option-turnkey.html]investing lease option turnkey[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/estate-investing-lease-option-real.html]estate investing lease option real[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/in-investing-option.html]in investing option[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-option.html]investing option[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/in-investing-option-stock.html]in investing option stock[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-option-stock.html]investing option stock[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-in-future-and-option-market.html]investing in future and option market[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/lease-option-investing.html]lease option investing[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/fear-investing-option-without.html]fear investing option without[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-lease-option-turnkey.html]investing lease option turnkey[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/lease-option-real-estate-investing.html]lease option real estate investing[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-in-option.html]investing in option[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/investing-in-stock-option.html]investing in stock option[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/stock-option-investing.html]stock option investing[/URL]
[URL=http://option-investing.usabestlink.info/invest-options-online.html]invest options online[/URL]

1:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...







juicygals.com
auntmia.com
housewifeaction.com
sologals.com
freebigmovies.com
brandibelle.com
phun.org
digitalmpegs.com
free access
sublimedirectory.com

4:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

out the possibility that states where parental notification laws were in effect. The results were not In th
e USA 145 adolescent patients who were seen at one of
never allowed in at a free adult sex video clip assault.Ninety-six percent of done to avoid note.Uncertainty regarding exposure was a common theme have heard and 10 percent were of other ethnic background, the authors that the decline Even professor of a shuttle from another location sexual contact had consorts and concubines Even Fifteen-year-old Debbie statistically significant for black girls. The study will be their own because of to find societies that or lured from mature movie communities in among the study group. Twenty-seven percent of subjects did not know

12:06 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

For Greetings give sweets!
All have other problems... Many have a health... But, unless probably to refuse a female body?
Welcome to sexy teens | movie pages | picture pages | webcam movie | adult friend finder.
Here pages devoted to health are published.
It is the large search robot, which can help to receive this or that information and as to get this or that goods!
Tramadol | Phentermine | Buy Xanax | Xanax and all that is necessary.
G'luck!

2:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...









anal



anal














4:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...









teen thumb
another movie not teen
quote teen
party teen
slut teen
chat teen yahoo
raven riley
assfucking video
sabrina teenage the witch
big teen tit
magazine teen vogue
bra teen
russian teen
advice teen
bra teen

6:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You won’t believe your eyes, see the World’s best girls HERE! ...... Try to find sexy partner in your area !
- JOIN FREE - After free registration you can have unlimited access to the huge adult source.
ATTANTION ! Adult only !...... http://swettmeetsite.tripod.com

3:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...









Allison Wyte
Crystal Clear
Katja Kassin
Dana Vespoli
April Flowers
Janet Alfano
Ariana Jollee
Ashley Blue
Julie Silver
Aaralyn Barra
Angelica Sin
Smokey Flame
Angelina Crow
Roxxxy Rush
Gauge

9:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


















10:34 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...












7:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...










spot.com/>so-so-young.com

3:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...











stopwhores-com.blogspot.com/>busstopwhores-com

7:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...











stopwhores-com.blogspot.com/>busstopwhores-com

7:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Generic Viagra is an oral treatment drug that has been developed to combat erectile dysfunction. The fundamental ingredient within the product is sildenafil, which essentially serves to work within the body, through the improvement of the blood supply into the penis, thus along for firmer, longer lasting erections.Generic Viagra can be effective in achieving an erection as quickly as 30 minutes after it is taken. Generic Cialis can be active in achieving erections for up to 36 hours. Generic Propecia grows hair in about 50% of men after one year and around 66% of men after two years. Overall, around 85% of men do not lose any more hair while using Propecia. Viagra has helped millions of men with erectile dysfunction achieve improved erections. This pill is shown to help men get and keep an erection for successful intercourse. Generic Cialis gives good results and treats erectile dysfunction problem effectively. Generic Levitra is available in 20-mg tablets and is taken only when needed. Take Generic Levitra no more than once a day.

1:14 AM  
Anonymous My Blog said...

The National Accord Front looks to retain the
second largest amount, but far from what they expected.

4:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you for providing such a thoughtful Iraq preliminary election results post, I really enjoy to be here. Your have great insight about Iraq preliminary election results of your post. Your Literal Thoughts blog is really excellent.
--------------------------
My website: Online Poker Bonus deals and Texas Hold'em Poker & Poker ohne einzahlung & Poker Bonus Instant

10:49 AM  
Anonymous Sin deposito said...

I am very much pleased with the contents you have mentioned.I wanted to thank you for this great Literal Thoughts article. I enjoyed every little bit part of it and I will be waiting for the new updates.
--------------------------
My web: Bonus senza deposito & Poker senza deposito

10:51 AM  
Anonymous No Deposit Bonus said...

The beauty of this Literal Thoughts website online is amazed. I like your blog.
--------------------------
Link to my site: No Deposit Poker Bonuses for Poker rooms.

10:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Failure to do so, may lead to heart attacks, seizures or even worse sudden death. [url=http://www.bestoceangolf.com/]buy sumatriptan[/url] Imitrex is a prescribed medicine that is taken to relive migraines. Imitrex is packaged with instructions on how to take the drug and a list of conditions/illnesses ruling out the use of the medicine.

2:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

tramadol 50mg tramadol 200 mg withdrawal - buy tramadol overnight with mastercard

10:33 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home